Listings climb to the most in nearly 2 years
As Metro area homes take more time to sell, prices are up, but are forecast to appreciate only by single digits

Saturday, December 16, 2006

TED SICKINGER
The Oregonian

If you're thinking that For Sale sign down the street is about to sprout moss, you're not imagining things.

New listings of homes for sale in the Portland metropolitan area increased 8.5 percent last month, while closed sales declined by 17.5 percent.

The result: homes are sitting longer -- 51 days in November versus 38 in the same period last year -- and the supply of homes for sale is at its highest level in almost two years. In November, the inventory reached the equivalent of 5.1 months, according to numbers released Friday by the Regional Multiple Listing Service. The numbers are for all residential property categories.

"We're transitioning to a buyers' market," said Jerry Johnson of the Johnson Gardner economic consulting firm in Portland. "There's an element of seasonality, but standing inventory really is more of an issue. We've seen it roughly double in the last year or two."

Last week, Johnson issued a forecast calling for price appreciation of 5 percent to 8 percent next year, much slower than the blistering double-digit pace in recent years. On Friday, he said sellers can expect to see buyers pushing for lower prices, and home builders discounting their new homes.

Prices haven't slipped yet though. The median home in the metropolitan area was $278,000 in November, up 10.1 percent from the same time last year. But year-over-year price increases have dwindled to their lowest levels since mid-2004.

Agents think the next few months will be telling.

"The spring market will tell the story," said Brian Pienovi with Realty Trust. "Every year since I've been president of this company (9 years) we've seen the market go up in the spring. Everybody's a little cautious about what's going to happen this spring."

Peggy Hoag, a real estate agent with Prudential Northwest Properties, said her telephone didn't ring in November. Now, she said, pre-holiday activity is picking up as buyers sense bargains.

On the other hand, she said she's seen a lot of sellers pull their houses off the market, both for the holiday break and their sense that the market was weak. Many of those listings will be back in January, she said.

"I think we're going to see a lot of new inventory out there in the new year," Hoag said. "It'll be interesting to see what happens."

Billy Grippo with Windermere/Cronin & Caplan Realty Group said he, like Hoag, is having a strong December after "everybody froze up" in September and October. But he was making no predictions for the new year.

"I'm hoping the buyers show back up, because we know the supply is going to be there," he said.

At seven months, Southwest Washington's inventory --comprising homes for sale in Clark, Cowlitz and Pacific counties -- is larger than the Portland metro area's. But it showed a small improvement in November, as new listings declined. The area's median sales price was $253,700, up 4.8 percent from the same time last year.

Ted Sickinger, 503-221-8505; tedsickinger@news.oregonian.com

©2006 The Oregonian

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